Wednesday, March 06, 2002

[bOing bOing] Was the Pentagon actually hit by a truck bomb? Conspiracy theory: The Pentagon was not hit by an airliner on 9/11. Here are the pictures to prove it. Link Discuss I'm skeptical.   Still, the pictures are interesting.   I'm not sure what conclusions to draw. 10:08:34 PM

So, I really like The Sneaky Exponential by David Reed.   It describes a law of network value (oh so modestly named Reed's Law), for networks that form groups (so called Group Forming Networks or GFNs).   In a nutshell, a GFNs value is proportional to the number groups that can form - 2N.   The most interesting thing is the dynamic of the GFN value equation as it varies with network size.  At the low end, the Sarnoff Effect dominates, so the content is what makes the network valuable -- the network operates best in broadcast mode (broadcast television).   At the middle range, Metcalfe's law dominates, so the number of participants is what makes the network valuable -- the network opreates in peer-to-peer mode (as fax, email, etc).  At the high end, Reed's law dominates, so the networks ability to form groups is what makes it valuable (e.g. newsgroups, eBay).    Obviously, not all networks can support group forming (e.g. fax) or even peer-to-peer (e.g.  cable tv).   But, when your network can support group formation,  I think this provides a valuable roadmap for where to concentrate your energy at various points in adoption of the network:  Don't jump straight to group forming -- start with content, until you have size, then emphasize the group forming.   It's often really difficult to acheive critical mass on networks like this because people are reluctant to commit themselves to proprietary networks;  they also recognize that their contribution to the network is what makes it valuable and to resent paying for more than up keep on the network.    So, how do you profit from a GNF?  Reed also pointed out that at some point, other factors become the limiting factor on realizable network value -- e.g. users only have so much money and so much attention -- any value beyond that cannot be captured by users.   Since attention is one of the limiting factors, tools that increase the yield from the users invested attention will actually unlock significant value -- the valuable tail of the graph.   So, maybe the best market to be in is in the tools market.  9:53:31 PM

[CNET News.com] Amazon, Barnes&Noble settle patent suit. Amazon.com says it has settled its long-running patent-infringement suit against its e-commerce rival over Amazon's 1-Click checkout system. 9:02:07 PM

[xmlhack] Encryption, Decryption reach Candidate Recommendation. The W3C has released XML Encryption Syntax and Processing and Decryption Transform for XML Signature as Candidate Recommendations, as well as a new XML Encryption Requirements Note. 4:18:52 PM

[ZDNet Tech News] Analysts: Apple's in LCD squeeze. Orders for Apple's new iMac are backing up, and a shortage of LCD flat panels is at the root of it, say analysts, dealers and distributors. Are price rises on the way? ouch... 3:52:15 PM

[Slashdot] 802.11b on your Tivo 3:49:44 PM

[Perl.com Perl.com] Stopping Spam with SpamAssassin. SpamAssassin and Vipul's Razor are two Perl-based tools that can be used to dramatically reduce the number of junk emails you need to see. ah, perl... 3:46:19 PM

[Scripting News] Seth Dillingham is doing a directory of Frontier resources, looking for pointers.  12:51:12 PM

[Slashdot] Hack Turns iPod into PDA 12:50:27 PM

[kuro5hin.org] Batteries. Not too long ago I stumbled upon and interesting problem. I found a real situation, in which a company has more rights than "just a person." This is not about a billion-dollar lawsuit, or lobbying the government, this is about a simple AA battery. 7:00:54 AM

[Slashdot] The Timex Speedpass Watch - maybe wireless electronic payments are finally here. 6:53:47 AM

[John Robb's Radio Weblog] Damn.  David Berry's tutorial on using FrontPage with Radio is great.  6:47:42 AM